BRUSSELS: The European Union is grappling with the most significant demographic crisis in over six decades. According to the latest Eurostat data, 3.67 million children were born across EU countries in 2023—210,000 fewer than the previous year. This 5.4% drop marks the steepest decline in births since 1961, pulling Europe even further from the replacement-level fertility threshold. Poland, ranking among the lowest EU countries in terms of fertility rate (TFR), faces dire social and economic consequences.
The Decline in Births – Scale of the Issue
The EU’s total fertility rate in 2023 was just 1.38, down from 1.46 in 2022. Bulgaria recorded the highest fertility rate (1.81), followed by France (1.66) and Hungary (1.55). At the bottom of the list were Malta (1.06), Spain (1.12), and Lithuania (1.18).
Poland, with a TFR of 1.2 in 2023, ranked fourth from the bottom. Preliminary 2024 data shows an even steeper decline, with the TFR dropping to 1.1—the lowest in Poland’s post-war history. These alarming numbers highlight the scale of the demographic crisis facing the country.
Why Are European Women Having Fewer Children?
The decline in fertility is not a new phenomenon—birth rates have been steadily falling for decades. Many EU countries have operated below the replacement fertility level (2.1) since the 1970s. Key factors behind today’s low birth rates include:
- Cultural and Social Shifts – Women are prioritizing education and career development, while traditional family models evolve. In transition economies such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, rapid economic growth has not been matched by social progress in sharing domestic responsibilities, placing additional burdens on women and discouraging larger families.
- Economic Uncertainty – Financial crises, rising living costs, and unstable employment prospects make young adults postpone or entirely forgo parenthood.
- Rising Age of First-Time Mothers – More women now have their first child after age 30. In Bulgaria, the average age of first-time mothers is 26.9, while in Italy it’s 31.8. Delaying parenthood naturally reduces the number of children per woman.
- Insufficient Family Policies – While countries in Central and Eastern Europe (including Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) have introduced family support programs (e.g., Poland’s 500+), data suggests these initiatives are not sufficient to sustainably increase birth rates.
Poland on the Edge of a Demographic Collapse
Poland has seen one of the sharpest declines in births across Europe. As early as 2003, the TFR dropped to 1.22; in 2023, it hit 1.2 and is estimated to have fallen to 1.1 in 2024.
What does this mean for Poland’s future?
- Population Decline – If current trends continue, Poland will become one of the fastest-shrinking countries in the EU.
- Labor Market Pressure – Fewer young people means fewer workers, potentially stalling economic growth and straining the pension system.
- Pension System Challenges – With fewer people entering the workforce, the burden on social security systems will increase.
Are There Positive Examples in Europe?
Some countries have managed to improve their fertility rates. Hungary and the Czech Republic raised their TFRs from the historically low levels of 1.18–1.30 in the early 2000s to around 1.5–1.6 by 2021. Bulgaria has maintained a relatively high and stable rate in recent years, reaching 1.81 in 2023.
Factors contributing to success include:
- Effective family policies, such as housing subsidies for young couples.
- Better work-life balance options for parents, including flexible work schedules.
- Greater gender equality in domestic roles.
Conclusion
Europe is facing its most serious demographic challenge in decades. Poland, with one of the lowest fertility rates in the EU, must act decisively to avoid long-term social and economic fallout. Comprehensive reforms are essential—from family support systems to structural changes that make parenthood more viable and desirable for younger generations. Without swift and systemic intervention, both Poland and Europe risk falling into a demographic trap with long-lasting generational consequences.
CER Economy >> KJN >> Source: Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny >> 19.03.2025
