The military conflict involving the State of Israel, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America has broader repercussions for the entire region of the so-called Middle East. It also has a significant impact on countries such as the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and even the European Union. Dariusz Janus, Chief Economist of the Institute of Business (Instytut Biznesu), recognizes these interdependencies. Below, the News Agency presents his commentary on the matter.

Dariusz Janus: The situation is slowly becoming clear. The theatre in the Persian Gulf, in connection with the military conflict, is showing a strategic advantage.

The Consequences of Paying for Crude Oil with “Mandarins”

The People’s Republic of China cannot function without crude oil, and the Middle East cannot function without the dollar. Nervousness is growing on both sides. Of course, the Middle East can sell crude oil for yuan — the currency of the People’s Republic of China — but it will not be able to buy real estate or other assets with it either in the European Union or in the United States of America. The countries of the Arabian Peninsula do not want to repeat the mistake made by the Russian Federation, which, when selling crude oil to the Republic of India, settled transactions in… “mandarins”.

The Consequences of the Idea of De-Dollarizing the Global Economy

Under the guise of “de-dollarizing the global economy”, the People’s Republic of China is selling American bonds on a massive scale in order to use those dollars to save its economy. It declares an ideological objective while pursuing an economic one. I estimate that once reserves in the People’s Republic of China fall below USD 500,000,000,000, “asphyxia” will begin. The patient will discover that an organism cannot live without the flow of blood.

Persian Gulf States Need Dollars

The difference between the Persian Gulf states and the People’s Republic of China is that the former — the Persian Gulf — can turn, and does turn, to the Fed, otherwise known as the Federal Reserve System or Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States of America, for currency swaps. These are financial agreements in which two parties exchange specified amounts in different currencies at the current exchange rate, while simultaneously undertaking to reverse the exchange at a specified future date at a pre-agreed rate. They are used mainly for liquidity management, hedging against currency risk and financing operations.

The People’s Republic of China could also turn to the Fed, but it certainly will not do so. And even if it did, it certainly would not receive such support.

The Final Answer to the Question: Can One Live Without the Dollar and Oil?

The People’s Republic of China has decided to test whether it is possible to live without crude oil and the US dollar. So let it test this. The sooner it does so, the better for us.

Dariusz Janus – Chief Economist of the Institute of Business

Dariusz Janus – Basic Information

Dariusz Janus is a financier, analyst and businessman, and serves as Chief Economist of the Institute of Business. He graduated from Humboldt University in Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany, and the SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Dariusz Janus has worked in financial institutions such as Bank Handlowy w Warszawie, BRE Bank, the PZU Group, investment funds and venture funds.

For 20 years, he has been running his own investment projects, advising companies and launching start-ups. Dariusz Janus is an expert in interest rates, central bank policy, currency markets, the energy market, venture capital, corporate governance and corporate restructuring. Since 2022, he has served as the new Chief Economist of the Institute of Business (Instytut Biznesu).

Central Europe Report, Economy / Source: Agencja Informacyjna / Dariusz Janus – Photo: Jerzy Mosoń / 4.05.2026